Erie, Pennsylvania 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

390
FXUS61 KCLE 290147
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
947 PM EDT Sat Jun 28 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Cold front exits this evening, replaced by high pressure through
Sunday night. Another cold front comes through Monday night, and
then another again around Thursday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
9:30 PM Update...

The forecast remains on track for tonight. Fog is still likely
to develop now that dew points have finally dropped 5 to 10
degrees. This will result in small temp/dew point spreads and
when combined with surface ridging over the wet ground and clear
skies, fog is a good bet. Will need to monitor for possible
advisories late tonight.

6:30 PM Update...

The forecast remains on track for the evening with no changes
needed.

Original Discussion...

Convergence along the cold front keeps convection firing along
the fringe of the southeastern zones into the late afternoon
before exiting. This cold front passage is going to allow
temperatures to drop into the mid 60s tonight thanks to a
decrease in dewpoints. Winds go calm and boundary layer
decouples with fog formation expected for the bulk of the CWA
tonight, less the far northwestern corner including the Toledo
area. Dry day expected into Sunday with high pressure into
Sunday night and continued warm across the region.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Broad upper trough digs into the Great Lakes Monday into Monday
night with returning active weather in the antecedent southwest flow
aloft ahead of the Monday night cold front. Currently slated for a
Day 3 Marginal from SPC for the western portion of the CWA, and will
watch to see how that evolves in upcoming forecasts. Still also
dealing with a tropical high PWAT/weak flow atmosphere, and will
also need to watch for the typical training of heavier rainfall.
Cold front should take the POPs with it Tuesday morning off to the
south and east, and will settle into a temp and dewpoint forecast
for Tuesday about 5 degrees cooler/less than the upper 80s and lower
70s values on Monday. Forecast is dry Wednesday, but another cold
front will be on the doorstep with a reinforcing upper low dropping
into Ontario/Quebec.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
With another cold front around the Thursday time frame, temperatures
will continue to be held in check for the end of the week, primarily
in the 80s, but with some 70s in the eastern zones for Thursday in
the immediate wake of that front. The upper ridge returns to
building in over the deep south region for next weekend, signaling
another warming trend for the region while another cold front tries
to push back into the southern Great Lakes.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z Sunday THROUGH Thursday/...
VFR will prevail through early tonight, but confidence continues
to increase in fog formation late tonight into early Sunday
morning due to the surface ridging and resultant subsidence
over wet ground and small temp/dew point spreads. All sites
should see some IFR to LIFR mist and fog, except NW Ohio where
it has been drier, so potential is lower, but even included some
MVFR at KFDY. Any fog will dissipate by mid morning Sunday,
setting up a mostly sunny and VFR day.

NW winds of 5-10 knots this evening will become light and
variable tonight before turning S to SW at 5-10 knots Sunday. A
lake breeze looks to form at KCLE and KERI Sunday afternoon, so
have wind shifts to N there.

Outlook...Non-VFR possible with showers and thunderstorms late
Monday through early Tuesday.

&&

.MARINE...
Westerly winds 10-15kts currently bringing 2ft waves Cleveland
eastward will ease tonight and become light and variable through
Sunday with wave heights becoming less than a foot. Sunday
night into Monday, winds turn south southwesterly 10kts ahead of
a Monday night cold front. Expecting 2-3ft waves behind the
cold front into Tuesday before winds become southwesterly again
around 10kts again on Wednesday with wave heights back below
2ft.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...26
NEAR TERM...Garuckas/26
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...Garuckas
MARINE...26