Erie, Pennsylvania 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

150
FXUS61 KCLE 152328
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
728 PM EDT Sun Mar 15 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
The Wind Advisory has been expanded to include the rest of our
southeast counties to account for a brief period of stronger wind
gusts in proximity to the cold frontal passage Monday morning. The
remaining wind headlines have been extended through early Monday
evening to capture strong southwesterly wind gusts behind the front.
Continued refinement has taken place to the snowfall forecast across
the snowbelt for Monday night into Tuesday.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Southerly winds will remain gusty at times through early Monday.
Winds shift southwest and stay strong through the day Monday,
gradually easing Monday night. Showers and possibly an isolated
thunderstorm along a cold front may also briefly enhance wind gusts
late tonight and early Monday, mainly across Northwest and North
Central Ohio.

2) Wintry weather returns late Monday and Tuesday with wind chills
dropping into the single digits. Accumulating snow is likely in the
primary snowbelt region, with scattered snow showers elsewhere.

3) Limited precipitation chances with a gradual warming trend
expected Wednesday through Saturday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE #1...

Southerly winds are quickly turning gusty this afternoon as daytime
heating allows mixing to deepen into a strengthening low-level jet
overhead. A Wind Advisory has kicked in for much of the area, with a
High Wind Warning for Erie County PA. A couple of 50kt/58 MPH gusts
are possible in Northwest Ohio through late this afternoon as has
been observed to our southwest, though think this would be on a
brief and localized basis so am holding with the advisory there.

A very strong low-level jet (65-75kt at 850mb, 40-55kt at 925mb)
will remain in place through early Monday ahead of an approaching
cold front. The overall strongest winds in this regime will occur in
Erie County PA this evening through pre-dawn Monday, where
downsloping will bring potential for some gusts over warning
criteria of 50kt/58 MPH, particularly across the northwestern third
of the county between the ridge tops and lakeshore. Some downsloping
will occur close to the Northeast OH lakeshore as far west as the
Cleveland area, though to a somewhat lesser magnitude with
occasional advisory-level (40-49kt or 46-57 MPH) gusts favored in
this area. Elsewhere, wind gusts will likely lull at times overnight
in the overall warm advection regime as the near-surface cools and
stabilizes a bit, though it will remain gusty at times.

We`ll likely see some uptick in wind gusts from west to east late
tonight into early Monday as the front progresses through. A
Marginal Risk for severe weather (level 1 of 5) remains in place
west of the I-77 corridor for overnight tonight. While there`s good
agreement at this point that meager (<100 J/KG of SBCAPE) will be in
place across the local area with convection expected to be weakening
as it comes in, a lack of a stronger near-surface inversion and
strong linear forcing along the front may allow a somewhat
organized, low-topped QLCS to push into the western half of our area
before completely weakening. If this pans out, any more formidable
line segments could locally enhance winds to severe limits (50kt/58
MPH or greater) and bring potential for tree/power-line damage. It`s
worth noting that given the meager instability, any severe weather
may occur in the absence of lightning. Confidence in severe weather
remains low to medium, and feel the marginal risk for damaging winds
covers it well. Even without convection, the quick pressure
rise/couplet with the front and vertical motion associated with the
cold front itself may also help force stronger wind gusts, perhaps
back into advisory range, to the ground in proximity to the frontal
passage. Confidence in advisory-level non-convective winds occurring
with the frontal passage is not high, especially in our southeastern
counties, though did expand the Wind Advisory to include the entire
forecast area to be in collaboration with surrounding WFOs.

Behind the cold front, strong cold advection along with a decent
pressure gradient and quick pressure rises will support continued
gusty southwest winds on Monday. Flow aloft appears marginally
strong enough to support some advisory-level gusts, especially west
of the I-71 corridor and along the lakeshore. Have gone ahead and
extended most of the wind headlines through early Monday evening,
save for our far southeastern counties. One more extension may be
needed along the eastern lakeshore into Monday night, though will
allow future shifts to better evaluate that possibility.

Outside of a passing shower late this evening or tonight, we will
remain dry and warm until the cold front brings a relatively narrow
band of rain to the area late tonight into Monday morning. Overall
rain amounts remain modest and have perhaps trended a bit lower,
generally in a 0.10-0.40" range.

KEY MESSAGE #2...

It will remain very warm/mild until the cold front crosses very late
tonight or Monday morning, with many areas staying in the upper 50s
or lower 60s until the front crosses. Temperatures will then quickly
fall on Monday, dipping below freezing from west to east during the
late afternoon and early evening. By early Tuesday, air temperatures
will bottom out between the upper 10s and lower 20s with wind chills
dipping into the single digits. While not overly hazardous on its
own, this will be quite jarring after recent (and ongoing as of this
writing!) temperatures in the 70s and could affect outdoor St
Patrick`s Day plans. Highs on Tuesday will mostly stay in the 20s,
with another night Tuesday night where large portions of the area
will see air temperatures reach the 10s for lows.

With the cold comes snow potential. While the greatest potential for
inches of accumulation will reside in parts of the snowbelt, much of
the area stands to see at least a bit of the white stuff. The band
of rain along the front will slow before exiting our eastern counties
Monday afternoon, in response to the base of the incoming upper
trough taking on a more neutral to negative tilt. This will allow the
cold air to catch it enough that our far eastern counties may see a
brief period of wet synoptic snow later Monday afternoon/early
evening. Warm ground and marginal air temperatures should preclude
any roadway impacts before sunset, though some locations may see some
slushy/grassy accumulations from the synoptic snow from far eastern
Ohio into Northwest PA. Otherwise, scattered snow showers are likely
area-wide beneath the upper level trough with some moisture
connection to Lake Michigan, particularly late Monday afternoon into
the first half of Monday night as a sharp low-mid level trough axis
swings through. The synoptic lift with the trough passage, weak low-
level instability, and gusty background winds may allow snow showers
late Monday afternoon or evening to be a bit "squally". As
temperatures quickly plunge well below freezing into Monday evening,
slick spots can develop on roads across the area where more
organized/intense snow showers occur.

Shifting into the snowbelt, we are still looking at a brief window
Monday night into Tuesday morning where conditions appear conducive
for some late-season lake effect snow. Expect lake effect snow to
begin developing and pushing onshore late Monday evening as winds
align out of a west to slightly north of due west direction behind
the passage of a low-mid level trough axis, with this general flow
persisting until Tuesday afternoon when low-level ridging starts
pushing in and backing the flow more southwesterly.

There is about a 15 hour window window starting around 8 PM Monday
in which moderate lake-induced instability, good moisture/lift in the
preferred dendritic growth zone, limited wind shear, multiple
upstream lake moisture connections, and good convergence along the
lakeshore near or just east of Cleveland will support moderate to
heavy snow (peak rates around 1" per hour) within more organized lake
effect snow bands. The main limiting factor is strong boundary layer
winds over the lake (gale or near gale-force) until early Tuesday,
which may impact band organization or at the least push snow farther
inland. The secondary limiting factor is the time of year, with a
strong negative diurnal influence on lake effect processes during the
afternoon hours, limiting the window during which good accumulations
can occur. Ultimately, continued to refine the snowfall forecast as
higher resolution guidance comes into range and have a general 2 to
5" snowfall forecast across the primary snowbelt. The higher amounts
will likely be found in the higher terrain away from the lakeshore,
with most of the snow falling Monday night into Tuesday morning but
with some lighter snow continuing into Tuesday night along the
lakeshore. Advisories may be needed for the snow, especially keeping
in mind that snow/impacts may peak during the Tuesday AM commute.

KEY MESSAGE #3:

The late taste of winter will be short-lived, with highs returning to
the 50s Thursday into Friday and even some 60s becoming possible into
the weekend. Minor precipitation chances are in the forecast for
parts of the area on Wednesday, Thursday, and later Friday into
Friday night. The precipitation on Wednesday may fall in the form of
snow, though confidence in measurable precip is low as the system
will be weakening as it comes in...with any snow not expected to be
impactful during the daytime hours in mid-March.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z Monday THROUGH Friday/...
Awaiting a cold front to track through the region after 05Z with
a convective line of showers that will likely enhance the
already robust wind gusts that are currently 30-40kts. TOL/FDY
has the best chance for TSRA, but will only mention this as
VCTS/CB as the coverage of thunder with the line looks to wane
as it approaches the IN/OH state line due to lack of convective
instability. Winds in the wake of the cold front will be just as
strong, 35-45kts, and wind directions turning from SE/S to more
SW. Ceilings lower to MVFR behind the cold front as well.
Strong cold air advection brings snow showers into play late in
the TAF period at YNG/ERI.

Outlook...Non-VFR will likely persist with scattered rain
showers changing to scattered snow showers on Monday. Lake
effect snow showers and possible squalls will impact the
Snowbelt of NEOH and NWPA Monday night into Tuesday.

&&

.MARINE...
Marine weather conditions are expected to be very rough today
through Tuesday. A Small Craft Advisory is currently in effect
today into tonight. A Gale Warning will take in effect for all
of Lake Erie Monday morning through Tuesday morning. Southerly
winds will increase 25 to 30 knots today and tonight.
Southwester to westerly Gales 35 to 40 knots will move over Lake
Erie Monday through Tuesday morning. Gusts Monday will be up to
50 knots likely. Waves will be increase with the highest over
the open basin up to 15 feet or more. Winds will slowly ease
down Tuesday into Tuesday night but remain from the west 15 to
25 knots. Additional SCA will likely be needed after the Gale
Warning. Winds and waves will be on the lighter side mid to end
of next week, southerly around 10 knots

As the strong winds shift southwesterly to westerly behind the
strong cold front Monday morning, water levels will likely drop
in the western basin of Lake Erie. A Low Water Advisory has
been issued Monday morning through Tuesday morning as water
levels are expected to drop below the critical mark for safe
marine navigation.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...Wind Advisory until 8 PM EDT Monday for OHZ003-006>014-017>023-
     027>031-036-037-047-089.
     Wind Advisory from midnight tonight to 11 AM EDT Monday for
     OHZ032-033-038.
PA...Wind Advisory until 8 PM EDT Monday for PAZ003.
     High Wind Warning until 8 PM EDT Monday for PAZ001-002.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Monday for LEZ142>149.
     Gale Warning from 8 AM Monday to 8 AM EDT Tuesday for
     LEZ142>149-162>169.
     Low Water Advisory from 8 AM Monday to 8 AM EDT Tuesday for
     LEZ142>144-162>164.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...10/Sullivan
AVIATION...26
MARINE...77