Erie, Pennsylvania 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

965
FXUS61 KCLE 251746
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
146 PM EDT Sat Apr 25 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
POPs linger a touch longer Saturday morning. A bit cooler Sunday in
the far western zones with a NE wind off of chilly Lake Erie. Early
next week cold frontal passage will be slowed down into the Tuesday
time frame.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Rain exits with cooler weather and high pressure influences make the
rest of the weekend dry.

2) A cold front moves through with the next chances for convection
Monday night and Tuesday, followed by a cooler pattern through the
end of the week with dominant upper level low pressure in place.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...
Upper trough/frontal system exits this morning followed by surface
high pressure influences and mid/upper level ridging into Sunday.
Drier weather, and for Sunday, the orientation of the surface
ridging will create northeasterly winds off of Lake Erie, and
ultimately a temperature profile of cooler conditions from western
Cuyahoga to Toledo and a couple of counties inland for the western
CWA. Column pretty dry through the weekend period upon frontal exit,
and into Monday finally will get back into 850mb temperature
increases ahead of the next frontal system. Should be in the 70s
area wide Monday, or very close to it, perhaps coming a couple
degrees short for some of the NW PA locations.

KEY MESSAGE 2...
Low pressure system deepens over the central plains region tracking
northeastward into the northern Great Lakes Monday into Tuesday,
with the next cold front slated to move through the CWA. Severe
threat could be ramped up a bit from the previous system moving
through this morning with a much more pronounced low level jet and
increasing 0-6km bulk shear values. Will need to better assess other
parameters such as instability in coming forecast runs, but decent
confidence as of right now in convective weather for late Monday
night into Tuesday. Looking at the broader scale picture, after that
cold front exits, another surface low brings precipitation chances
from the southwest Tuesday night into Wednesday. In the meantime,
upper level low pressure drops into the Great Lakes and could be at
risk of cutting off, translating to a period of below normal
temperatures for the region late in the week and heading into next
weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z Saturday THROUGH Thursday/...
At the surface, a high pressure ridge builds gradually from
James Bay and vicinity through 18Z/Sun as a trough axis remains
nearly stationary over western NY and western PA. Our regional
surface winds veer gradually from NW`erly to NE`erly and trend
5 to 15 knots through the TAF period. Widespread low clouds and
resulting MVFR to LIFR ceilings persist for the time being as
lingering moisture at/near the surface remains trapped beneath
a low-level inversion accompanying the building ridge. These low
clouds may produce occasional sprinkles or drizzle.

Subtle breaks in the low clouds, weak surface winds, and the
lingering low-level moisture should allow mist/fog to form
after ~05Z/Sun, especially roughly along and east of the
longitude of KCAK. However, persistent onshore surface flow
associated with low-level cold air advection across ~49F Lake
Erie should contribute to mist or fog lingering along and near
the lakeshore from roughly the longitude of KBKL and points east
this afternoon into Sun morning. Following the onset of daytime
warming and resulting convective mixing of the boundary layer,
any lingering mist/fog should dissipate by ~14Z/Sun. The same
processes should allow lingering low clouds to become scattered
to broken in coverage and any lingering ceilings should rise to
the 2kft to 4kft AGL range between ~14Z/Sun and 18Z/Sun.

Outlook...Periodic rain showers with non-VFR are expected
Monday night through Thursday. Occasional thunderstorms are
expected Monday night through Wednesday.

&&

.MARINE...
A cold front moving east overnight will shift winds north-
northeast with speeds of 5-10 knots. Northerly winds will
increase across the central and eastern basin Saturday and
Saturday night, with winds between 10 to 15 knots and waves 2-4
feet. A strong low pressure system moves through the western
Great Lakes region for the start of next week, and winds will
increase to 15-20 knots for a period of time late Monday into
Tuesday. A a Small Craft Advisory may be needed.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...77
AVIATION...Jaszka
MARINE...27