Erie, Pennsylvania 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

424
FXUS61 KCLE 242326
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
726 PM EDT Fri Jul 24 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No significant changes to the previous forecast.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Mostly dry conditions expected through Saturday with patchy dense
fog possible overnight.

2) A series of troughs will traverse the region beginning on Sunday,
bringing multiple rounds of showers and storms to the area through
mid next week. Some storms may be strong to severe with the greatest
chance of severe weather on Monday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...
As high pressure remains dominant over the area, the majority of the
area should remain dry through Saturday. The exception to this may
be across counties east of I-77 on Saturday as increased moisture
pushes north over an area of weak isentropic lift. Any showers that
do develop should remain light and short lived given weak forcing
and the thunder potential remains minimal. Highs on Saturday will be
a bit warmer, climbing into the low to mid 80s.

During the overnight period tonight and Saturday night, patchy fog
is possible especially south of US-30 where low level moisture will
increase under an inversion. Confidence in the extent or density
remains low due to some lingering clouds possible tonight. Overnight
lows will drop into the upper 50s to mid 60s both nights.

KEY MESSAGE 2...
Beginning on Sunday, the dominant upper level ridge will begin to
sink south across the Southern Plains which will allow a trough to
dig over Great Lakes region. This upper level trough in conjunction
with multiple mid-level shortwaves will provide synoptic energy to
support periods of rainfall and thunderstorms through the middle of
next week. Initially on Sunday, scattered showers and thunderstorms
will be possible especially in the afternoon with the aide of
daytime instability, but overall impacts should remain minimal. The
greatest potential for severe weather will be on Monday as a
moistening deep layer ahead of a cold front will push north across
the area as a mid-level shortwave pushes east. Increased moisture
coupled with daytime heating should result in adequate instability
across the entire area. In addition, by Monday the area will be
situated under the left exit region of the upper level jet, further
enhancing lift and increasing deep layer sheer. These conditions
should result in clusters of thunderstorms developing with some of
them reaching strong to severe thresholds. There remains some
uncertainty in the forecast this far out, especially with how any
Sunday night precipitation may impact the forecast on Monday. If
showers and clouds linger into Monday morning, there will likely be
a diminished threat a bit given reduced instability. will have to
closely monitor the evolution of model guidance over the next few
days to get a better handle on storm potential Monday, but for now
SPC has issued a Day 4 SWO with the entire area highlighted in
15%.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z Saturday THROUGH Wednesday/...
VFR conditions expected through the TAF period for a majority of
terminals. There is potential for fog to develop from KMFD east
through KYNG with the greatest confidence at KMFD and KCAK.
Lingering cloud cover overnight may inhibit fog developing at
KYNG, so opted to continue a TEMPO group for it. Any fog should
dissipate by 12-13Z tomorrow morning. Winds will become light
and variable overnight then predominately out of the west by
mid-morning. A lake breeze is expected to impact KCLE and KERI
tomorrow, shifting winds to be out of the north by 16-17Z.

Outlook...Non-VFR possible with periodic showers and
thunderstorms Sunday afternoon through Tuesday.

&&

.MARINE...
Overall marine weather conditions will be good on Lake Erie for
this weekend. Northeasterly flow 10 to 15 knots will continue
for this afternoon for the central and 10 knots less for the
rest of the lake. Waves will be 1 to 2 feet in the central basin
and a foot or less elsewhere through tonight. Winds will be
light and variable 10 knots or less on Saturday with ideal
boating conditions. Waves around a foot are expected Saturday
into tomorrow night. Southwest flow returns Sunday through
Monday around 10 knots. Southerly to southwesterly flow will
increase 15 to 20 knots ahead of a cold front by Monday night
and Tuesday morning. Behind the frontal passage Tuesday, winds
will shift from the Northwest 10 to 20 knots and slightly higher
waves.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...04
AVIATION...23
MARINE...77