Erie, Pennsylvania 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

795
FXUS61 KCLE 220602
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
102 AM EST Sun Dec 22 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure builds over the region through Sunday before
departing to the east Sunday night. Low pressure drifting
across the Great Lakes region will lift a warm front east across
the local area on Monday followed by a cold front Monday night
into Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
10:00 PM Update...
Well, so much for expiring the winter weather advisory on time
as we actually extended it until 4 AM. The primary concern is
with the band extending from Lake Huron, which a spotter
reported observed 1-2 inch per hour snowfall rates over the past
several hours, despite its relatively lackluster appearance on
radar. Google Maps shows a portion of Ashtabula and Trumbull
Counties with slow traffic underneath this snow band. A special
weather statement has been issued for this band through 11:15
PM. Looking upstream near Lake Huron, don`t expect this band to
dissipate in the immediate near term with model guidance
gradually shifting it westward from Ashtabula/Trumbull towards
Lake, Geauga, Portage, and Mahoning after midnight or so. Am
expecting intensity to drop off after 09Z, though lake effect
snow may not truly end until the early afternoon when the ridge
axis moves in.

Previous Discussion...
Lake effect snow showers primarily due to a Lake Huron
connection are continuing to impact portions of Northeast Ohio
east of Cleveland this afternoon. Lake effect snow will continue
through this evening with an additional accumulations generally
between 1 and 3 inches, with locally higher amounts where bands
persist. The Winter Weather Advisory expires at 10 PM this
evening for counties in the CLE forecast area. The expectation
is that these showers will gradually diminish tonight as high
pressure and dry air enter from the west.

Chilly conditions tonight as overnight lows dip into the low
teens areawide and apparent temperatures drop into the single
digits for some. We`ll be dry for Sunday as high pressure
becomes established overhead with highs generally in the 20s.
Overnight lows Sunday night dip into the teens across Northwest
Pennsylvania and Northeast Ohio with warmer overnight lows
west of I-71 settling in the upper teens to lower 20s as warmer
air begins to advect into the region from the west ahead of our
next system.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Rain/snow showers are likely across NE OH/NW PA Monday afternoon and
especially Monday evening/night as a shortwave trough crosses the
area. An inch or two of snow accumulation is possible primarily
across the higher elevations of NW PA and possibly far NE OH, but do
not anticipate any significant impacts. Precip chances quickly
dwindle during the day on Christmas Eve as an upper ridge builds in
from the west and dry weather is favored for the remainder of the
short term period. Highs will be in the mid to upper 30s Monday and
the upper 30s to lower 40s Tuesday. Monday night`s lows will be in
the lower 30s and minimum temps will be in the cooler upper 20s
Tuesday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Surface high pressure and upper ridge will maintain influence over
the eastern CONUS through much of the long term period. Meanwhile, a
series of shortwaves will likely lift into the region through mid to
late week, although there`s quite a bit of model spread in the
placement and timing of any disturbances. The high to the east may
keep moisture relatively limited through at least Thursday which
should limit precipitation chances. Opted for periodic and broad
slight chance PoPs primarily confined to the western half of the
area where there may be a bit better moisture. PoPs increase a bit
more as an upper trough advances east towards the area Friday, but
still quite a bit to iron out with the placement/timing of
precipitation Friday into Saturday so precipitation chances have
been limited to slight chance to low end chance (~20 to 30 percent).

Temperatures will be above normal during the long term period. By
Friday, highs could be as warm as the lower 50s across southern
portions of the CWA.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z Sunday THROUGH Thursday/...
Low VFR ceilings remain settled in across the region early this
morning with two exceptions. In Northwest Ohio, clearing is in
place and will continue to expand with time. In Northeast Ohio,
some MVFR ceilings exist with lake effect snow still lingering
in the region. Overall, the MVFR should continue to diminish
through the morning hours as lake effect snow wanes. High
pressure will move to the east on Sunday and return flow will
enter the region scouring the low VFR ceilings and flipping
winds to the south. Clearing conditions will then be expected
late in the period.

Outlook...Non-VFR will be possible with a rain/snow mix Monday
afternoon into Tuesday. Non-VFR possible again with rain on
Wednesday.

&&

.MARINE...
Northwest winds will continue to diminish through this evening and
fall to 10 knots or less by late tonight. Small Craft Advisory will
remain in effect from Vermilion, OH to Conneaut, OH through 03Z/10
PM this evening since waves will likely remain above 4 feet for the
next several hours. Light and variable winds will continue through
Sunday before southerly winds increase to 10 to 20 knots Sunday
night. South to southwest winds may increase to 20 to 25 knots
Monday afternoon or evening, but the highest winds and waves will
likely remain in the open waters. Can`t rule out a Small Craft
Advisory as higher waves attempt to sneak into nearshore zones from
roughly Willowick OH to Ripley NY Monday night. Winds diminish and
shift to the northwest Tuesday with before becoming southeasterly
Wednesday through Thursday.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...Winter Weather Advisory until 4 AM EST early this morning for
     OHZ012>014-022-023-033-089.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Iverson
NEAR TERM...Iverson/Saunders
SHORT TERM...Maines
LONG TERM...Maines
AVIATION...Sefcovic
MARINE...Maines