Erie, Pennsylvania 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

509
FXUS61 KCLE 130538
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
1238 AM EST Wed Nov 13 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will build across the Great Lakes tonight before
departing into New England Wednesday ahead of low pressure
moving through the central Plains. This low will extend a warm
front across the region Wednesday night before a cold front
crosses Thursday night as the low crosses the southern Great
Lakes. High pressure will return late Friday and persist through
the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
9:55 PM Update:
Minor tweaks to hourly temps, dew points, and low temperatures
tonight resulting in only minor changes.

Gave the forecast for Wednesday night another look. Slowed down
the onset of POPs a bit and removed the mention of snow from
the forecast. While dry low-levels will support evaporational
cooling as rain spreads in, took a look at soundings from
several models and all have freezing levels above 700mb ahead of
the precip with temperatures well-above freezing below that.
Just don`t think evaporational cooling as precip spreads in will
be enough to overcome the already very mild low-levels in the
face of ongoing strong warm air advection.

Previous Discussion:
Clouds have finally cleared out of the region allowing for late
afternoon sunshine thanks to a large area of surface high
pressure building into the central Great Lakes region. This has
allowed for a slight spike in temperatures, but afternoon highs
still only reached the upper 40s to around 50.

Mid/upper shortwave ridging will build across the Great Lakes
and Ohio Valley tonight and Wednesday in response to a fast
moving mid/upper shortwave trough progressing across the Plains.
The associated surface low will track from the vicinity of
eastern Colorado tonight across the Kansas/Nebraska border
Wednesday. Southerly flow and resultant warm air advection
between this approaching low and the surface high departing
across New England will bring a boost in temperatures. After a
chilly night tonight with lows in the upper 20s/low 30s due to
strong radiational cooling, highs Wednesday will warm into the
low/mid 50s, with a few upper 50s in NW PA. Mid and high level
clouds will increase in the afternoon, but all areas will remain
dry until Wednesday night.

As the mid/upper trough swings into the western Great Lakes
Wednesday night, the low will start to become stacked and closed
off as it separates from the northern stream flow. This will
result in the closed low meandering between Chicago and the
western Ohio Valley by early Thursday while slowly filling.
Warm/moist advection and isentropic ascent focused near a modest
90-110 knot H3 jet streak will bring widespread showers into the
area from west to east along and ahead of a warm front late
Wednesday night, so maintained categorical PoPs and increased to
90-100%. Lows Wednesday night will range from the low to mid
30s in NE Ohio and NW PA to the upper 30s to low 40s in north
central and NW Ohio.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Isentropic ascent ahead of a northeast-moving warm front will result
in widespread rain showers Thursday as the associated vertically-
stacked low moves east across or in the vicinity of lower Michigan.
Expect showers to become more scattered as the low tracks over the
area and drags a cold front east across the CWA late Thursday
afternoon into Thursday evening. As mentioned in the previous
discussion, there may be a little bit of instability just ahead of
the cold front during peak heating, so can`t rule out some
convective showers and maybe a few rumbles of thunder; as of now
there`s still too little confidence to include any thunder in the
forecast at this time. It will be quite breezy ahead of the warm
front Thursday with sustained southeast winds to 20 mph likely
Thursday morning. Winds could gust as high as 25 to 30 mph during
this time if shower coverage is lower than anticipated and/or any
mixing occurs.

Scattered synoptic showers will transition to lake-enhanced rain
showers late Thursday night and well into Friday as the surface low
exits to the east and an upper trough lingers over the eastern
fringe of the forecast area. 850mb temperatures will only drop to 2
to 4C Friday so do not anticipate significant lake-induced
instability; any remaining showers will be light and hit and miss
and gradually taper off as a ridge begins to build in from the west
Friday afternoon and evening.

On Thursday, high temperatures will be in the mid to upper 40s in
the eastern half of the area with low to mid 50s more likely west.
Expect Thursday night`s lows to fall into the upper 30s to lower
40s. There won`t be a major air mass modification behind the system;
highs will once again reach the 50s Friday and Friday night`s lows
will be in the upper 30s to lower 40s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Surface high and upper ridge will produce dry weather through the
first half of the weekend. Warm air advection will develop Sunday as
the ridge axis pushes east of the local area and isentropic ascent
ahead of a deep trough advancing east out of the northern Plains
will result in shower chances increasing Sunday night into Monday
and again as another disturbance potentially crosses the region
Tuesday. There`s still some uncertainty in the upper level pattern
the last couple days of the long term period in addition to
available moisture as these systems cross the area so maintained
chance PoPs (less than 60 percent) for now.

Generally expect a warming pattern through the long term period with
highs in the 50s anticipated Sunday through Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z Wednesday THROUGH Sunday/...
VFR across the TAF sites early this morning with primarily VFR
to persist through the TAF period. Non-VFR conditions resulting from
lower ceilings and rain will begin to arrive in the 6-12Z
period Thursday, especially across the western TAF sites, so
anticipate inclusion with the next update. Otherwise, high
cirrus will gradually spread north and northeast into the area
through today.

Winds are generally out of the east early this morning, 5 to 10
knots. Winds will gradually increase to around 10 knots by later
this morning and afternoon, favoring a slight southeast
component towards the end of the TAF period. Higher southeast
wind gusts of 25 to perhaps 30 knots will be possible at ERI
late this evening and overnight with the aid of downsloping.

Outlook...Non-VFR likely in periods of rain and low ceilings
Wednesday night into Friday.

&&

.MARINE...
Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots this evening will become more
southeasterly and increase to 15 to 20 knots tonight into Wednesday
morning and again Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday evening.
Waves may briefly approach 4 feet on the eastern side of The Islands
during this time, but the higher waves should be focused into the
open waters of the lake. Headlines are not anticipated for this
timeframe, but Small Craft Advisories will likely be needed as
southeast winds increase to 15 to 25 knots ahead of an approaching
warm front late Wednesday night through early Thursday afternoon.
Winds should quickly diminish to 10 to 15 knots and become
northwesterly as a cold front and area of low pressure cross the
lake Thursday evening through Thursday night. Similar conditions
will persist through Saturday before winds become southwesterly
ahead of the next system on Sunday.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Garuckas
NEAR TERM...Garuckas/Sullivan
SHORT TERM...Maines
LONG TERM...Maines
AVIATION...Kahn
MARINE...Maines